2024 Preview: Takeaways from 1,000 simulations of the 2024 PGA TOUR season

A look at the key takeaways from simulations of the upcoming 2024 PGA TOUR season.


Xander Schauffele holds highest probability of making the TOUR Championship

Xander Schauffele has the highest probability of both making and winning the TOUR Championship in the upcoming PGA TOUR season, according to simulations.

Schauffele's impressive performance at East Lake Golf Club, where he has never shot over par, contributes to his high probability of success.

In addition to his course history, Schauffele's consistency, with 34 consecutive cuts made and 11 top-10 finishes in the 2023 season, makes him a strong contender.

Rebound incoming for Justin Thomas

After a poor season in 2023, Justin Thomas is predicted to make a quick turnaround in the 2024 PGA TOUR season.

Thomas, who had three consecutive top-5 finishes to close out 2023, is expected to perform well based on his course history and improved swing.

His drop in ball-striking in the previous season is likely to regress to the mean, making him a strong contender for the TOUR Championship once again.

Tony Finau joins familiar group in top five

Tony Finau is projected to round out the top five players in the upcoming PGA TOUR season, alongside Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, and Scottie Scheffler.

Finau's consistency and improvement in his approach play make him a strong contender for success in the season.

His historical performance and track record of making the TOUR Championship seven years in a row contribute to his high probability of reaching the top five.


Simpson and Montgomery among TOUR Championship surprises

Webb Simpson is projected to return to the TOUR Championship for the first time since 2019-20, while Taylor Montgomery, Alex Noren, Alex Smalley, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are predicted to make their first appearances.

Simpson's track record on certain TOUR venues and his improved performance in his approach play contribute to his projected success.

Montgomery stands out with his exceptional putting stats, while Noren and Smalley excel in par-3 performance and execution from the rough.